The Studies
Desistance
Gender dysphoria is a condition where children from an early age have a mismatch between their sex and their gender identity.
What we are witnessing today is an explosive increase in child transitioning — primarily affecting girls — and it does not meet the traditional definition of gender dysphoria. It is what physician and researcher Dr. Lisa Littman has called rapid-onset gender dysphoria.
We are facing a social contagion — a recent craze that has happened so quickly that we don’t have long-term studies addressing how many of these children will see their dysphoria desist when allowed to go through puberty. However, we do have studies going back in time which are helpful.
If anything, we should assume that the number of children who see their dysphoria go away will increase.
This study from Singh, Bradley, and Zucker on gender identity & sexual orientation of pre-pubertal boys showed that 87.8% of boys saw their gender dysphoria desist. The mean age of follow-up was 20.58 years old and this is the largest sample to date. 63.6% of the boys in this study grew up to be gay.
All other studies show similar numbers. As Dr. Debra Soh wrote in her book ‘The End of Gender’, the flood of hormones that come with puberty help to align gender dysphoric children with their natal sex.
This spreadsheet prepared by Paul Dirks, highlighting 11 studies, consistently shows that the vast majority of children will simply grow out of their gender dysphoria.
This article goes into further detail: Transition as Treatment: The Best Studies Show the Worst Outcomes
Given that gender dysphoria desists in 80% - 90% of children, the evidence is clear that we are carrying out a medical scandal on gender non-conforming children. We should not be rushing them into puberty blockers, cross-sex-hormones, and surgeries.
Suicides
The first thing I often hear from hostile people is that if we don’t give kids puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones, they will kill themselves. There is no data to support this.
This excerpt from genderhq.org is a good starting point for an overview of the research:
Trans Youth Suicide Statistics Manipulate Parents →
This is an older, but still excellent rebuke of the 41% trans suicide attempt rate that is often quoted:
The 41% trans suicide attempt rate: A tale of flawed data and lazy journalists→
Here’s an article by J. Michael Bailey, Ph. D and Ray Blanchard, Ph. D — “There is no persuasive evidence that gender transition reduces gender dysphoric children’s likelihood of killing themselves.”
Suicide or transition: The only options for gender dysphoric kids?→
This is a paper by Michael Biggs which refutes the Jack Turban article on puberty blockers and suicide risk:
Puberty Blockers and Suicidality in Adolescents Suffering from Gender Dysphoria→
Here is an article in response to Jack Turban’s article on conversion therapy and suicide risk:
Jack Turban’s Dangerous Campaign to Smear Ethical Psychotherapy as Anti-Trans Conversion Therapy→
For those who really want to dig in, here’s a wonderful read by Hacsi Horvath, MA, PgCert (Sheffield):
GIDS own data says that “suicide is extremely rare.” Evidence base→
Transgendertrend.com has done amazing work on this subject. “The threat that children may commit suicide if parents do not support their social and medical transition is not borne out by the facts.”
An outline of the history of using puberty blockers for gender dysphoria: ‘The Dutch Protocol’.